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Thread: statistical anomalies for spies

  1. #1
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    statistical anomalies for spies

    According to the spy interface, I had a 31% risk of being caught; yet I've consistently failed at a successful spy mission (i.e: 3+ in a row and counting). Therefore, I have no choice but to conclude that the mathematical equation you (the developers) use to calculate odds of success is flawed. Please address this issue asap, thank you.
    NeverMemory @ WWW 1

  2. #2
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    Yes the math is off, I always get the slider to 24% chance and I almost NEVER get caught. At 25% or greater I will get caught about half the time. Build up to 3 taverns for multiple spies to increase your odds.

    Today I saw Lioneyes5 on world 2 with 6 guardhouses with 40 total guards O_o With 4 spies I could get a great 56% accuracy with 24% chance of getting caught lol
    tecwzrd @ WWW 2

  3. #3
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    There is no statistical anomaly. 31% chance is actually extremely high. You should not be sending spies if the chance is this great of being caught unless you don't care if your opponent knows that you are scouting them. 3 in a row might be caught but then you might get another 10 in a row that are successful. The odds don't start over just because you were caught. You still have a 31% chance each time you send the agents. So there is no point in complaining about this.
    Sir Crockett @ WWW 1

  4. #4
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    I too have the impression that the calculation for spies getting caucht sometimes "hangs".
    A couple of days ago, my spies got caught three times in a row, spying on the same castle from the same outpost. Each spy report said the risk for getting caucht was 6%. If this was correct, the risk for getting caught three times in a row should be 0.02%. This is not exactly equal to "impossible", but it does make you wonder.

    I had a similar experience a couple of weeks ago, but don't recall the exact percentages from that time. My impression is that the risk sometimes "hangs on 100%", but returns to normal after a couple of hours. Maybe it has something to do with using the the time of day for randomization?
    Tretjak @ WWW 2

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tretjak View Post
    I too have the impression that the calculation for spies getting caucht sometimes "hangs".
    A couple of days ago, my spies got caught three times in a row, spying on the same castle from the same outpost. Each spy report said the risk for getting caucht was 6%. If this was correct, the risk for getting caught three times in a row should be 0.02%. This is not exactly equal to "impossible", but it does make you wonder.


    Funny how people always think of flaws when getting caught three times in a row but when they have 5 succesfull attempts in a row it's perfectly normal....
    Cartouschke @ nl 1

  6. #6
    Beginner Great Darius's Avatar
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    To those who don't know what they're talking about:
    31% chance of failing doesn't mean you will get caught 1 out of 3 attempts. It means if you had the chance to do it like a billion times you'd fail about 31million of the times.
    So even if you failed 10 times in a row that means nothing in terms of statistical analysis.
    Great Darius @ w2 @ en1

  7. #7
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    @ Sir Crockett indeed I do not care whether the target knows whether I'm scouting him or not; not unless Artificial Intelligence have been invented while I wasn't looking. (in that case, please excuse me while I prepare myself for the inevitable Robogeddon.)

    @Cartouschke2 Thank you very much, Captain Obvious, that must be the reason why lottery winner never stop to question their stunning good luck.

    @Great Darius the word "coincidence" must be invented for people like you; just throw that word out whenever something goes wrong why don't you? Don't even bother checking the code, eh? if it's entirely possible for my spies to get caught 6+ times in a row ( which according to my calculator, has a chance of less than 0.08%), then how are you so certain that the there is no chance that the developers made a tiny error in their coding thus resulting in unreliable success rate?
    NeverMemory @ WWW 1

  8. #8
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    Take out your calculator and calculate this:

    This weeks lotto: 10 tickets on sale, you hold 1 ticket so your chance of winning = 10%
    Next weeks lotto: 10 tickets on sale, you hold 1 ticket... What are your chances of winning next weeks lotto?

    There is always a chance that your calculator is wrong..... right?
    Cartouschke @ nl 1

  9. #9
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    @NeverMemory, most people would care if their targets knew they were scouting them. If I receive a message that someone failed to scout me I will consider that an act of war and will send an attack to them before they can attack me. I have no clue what this robogeddon nonsense you speak of is.
    Sir Crockett @ WWW 1

  10. #10
    Beginner Great Darius's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverMemory View Post
    @Great Darius the word "coincidence" must be invented for people like you; just throw that word out whenever something goes wrong why don't you? Don't even bother checking the code, eh? if it's entirely possible for my spies to get caught 6+ times in a row ( which according to my calculator, has a chance of less than 0.08%), then how are you so certain that the there is no chance that the developers made a tiny error in their coding thus resulting in unreliable success rate?
    I don't know if you're familiar with probabilities or not. This is where you're making the mistake:
    The result of every espionage you attempt is independent of all the ones you did before. The number you provided assumes you know nothing. But that assumption is wrong. When your 6th attempt failed you knew that 5 last attempts had failed already. So instead of calculating 6 failures in a row you should've calculated this:
    P(failure|5 last attempts failed)
    because the 2 occurrences are independent statement above is the same as this:
    P(failure)
    which in turns is the same 31% you mentioned earlier.

    All this said, I'm not saying it can't be a bug. I'm just saying even if you had failed 10 times in a row that wouldn't mean it's a bug in the code, until it happens many times over and over again and for many players. Then you can say for sure it's a bug.
    Great Darius @ w2 @ en1

  11. #11
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    @ Sir Crockett Okay, let me try another approach; I'm scouting a "robber baron castle", a NPC entity; therefore, I shouldn't have to worry about the "robber baron castle" getting uncomfortable with my scouting.
    NeverMemory @ WWW 1

  12. #12
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    @Great Darius okay, I see your point; though in my defense I would like to point out that it was never my intention to say that this is definitely a bug. At the time of my first post I may be frustrated with all the consecutive failed spy report and may have exaggerated a bit. But with that being said, I still consider this a possible venue for future investigation.

    P.S: I'm not sure what you're talking about regarding the statistics; I even google it a little bit and based on the few minutes search, probability of consecutive events should be the multiplication of the odds of each event together.
    NeverMemory @ WWW 1

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverMemory View Post
    I'm not sure what you're talking about regarding the statistics; I even google it a little bit and based on the few minutes search, probability of consecutive events should be the multiplication of the odds of each event together.
    just look at my example in post #8

    it's a simple example of what happens with the spy report because every attempt is a single new event
    Cartouschke @ nl 1

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cartouschke2 View Post
    just look at my example in post #8

    it's a simple example of what happens with the spy report because every attempt is a single new event
    I'm not talking about individual events and it's odds; I'm talking about the probability of consecutive events which is the odds of the first event (31%), times the second event (31% +/- 1%), times the third event, and so on until the end of the series. Which would result in 0.08%; which means that the odds of six failed report happening consecutively (one after another) is 8 in 10000. Which admittedly isn't zero, but a dam coincidence nonetheless.

    P.S: It's been a while since a took statistics, but I haven't forgotten everything.
    NeverMemory @ WWW 1

  15. #15
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    you think yours is bad i had a 100% accuracy and only 6% chance of being caught and you what happened??
    I got caught!!! same with 100% acc. and only 7% chance of being caught!

    RIDICULOUS
    It all started when my dog got free roll-over minutes......

  16. #16
    Beginner Great Darius's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverMemory View Post
    I'm not talking about individual events and it's odds; I'm talking about the probability of consecutive events which is the odds of the first event (31%), times the second event (31% +/- 1%), times the third event, and so on until the end of the series. Which would result in 0.08%; which means that the odds of six failed report happening consecutively (one after another) is 8 in 10000. Which admittedly isn't zero, but a dam coincidence nonetheless.

    P.S: It's been a while since a took statistics, but I haven't forgotten everything.
    Your consecutive failures doesn't apply here, but suppose it does. You're right the probability would then be 0.31^3, but that's roughly equals to 0.03 and not 0.08. This means out of every 10,000 espionage 3 of them will happen to fails 3 times in a row. I think 10,000 is not a big number when counting total number of espionages that happen every day. So in fact I wouldn't be surprised if this happens to you every few days or every week.
    Last edited by Great Darius; 11.04.2012 at 15:11.
    Great Darius @ w2 @ en1

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